Fiscal rules and budget forecast errors of Italian municipalities

Debt Level and Fiscal Rules in Iran According to Budget Structural Reform

Oil-exporting countries often escalate macroeconomic fluctuations by adopting cyclical fiscal policies. Empirical evidence shows that the main reason of instability in oil-exporting countries is the poor management of oil. In this study, after introducing a small open macroeconomic model with a dual managed floating exchange rate regime and estimating it using quarterly macroeconomic data of Ir...

Balanced Budget Rules and Fiscal Policy: Evidence from the States

The persistence of fiscal deficits in many industrial democracies has spawned a vast theoretical literature in political economy on why nations run budget deficits, along with a sharp policy debate concerning fiscal institutions that might reduce these deficits. The debate on fiscal institutions, such as proposed balanced budget amendments for the federal government, involves relatively little ...

The Fiscal Institutions of Brazilian Municipalities

Political Budget Cycles and Fiscal Decentralization∗

In this paper, we study a model à la Rogoff (1990) where politicians distort fiscal policy to signal their competency, but where fiscal policy can be centralized or decentralized. Our main focus is on the equilibrium probability that fiscal policy is distorted in any region, which we call the probability of a Political Budget Cycle (PBC). With centralization, there is the possibility of selecti...

Generalized Forecast Errors, A Change of Measure, and Forecast Optimality

This paper establishes properties of optimal forecasts under general loss functions, extending existing results obtained under speci…c functional forms and data generating processes. We propose a new method that changes the probability measure under which the well-known properties of optimal forecasts under mean squared error loss can be recovered. We illustrate the proposed methods through an ...